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Election betting meltdown

It was not just Labour in Scotland nor the Lib-Dems that suffered a meltdown, the betting analysts got it spectacularly wrong too. I revisited my Racing Post Election Special. It’s easier to refer to what Matthew Engel called correctly – Labour to hold Edinburgh South, Conservative  Blackpool North- then his predictions – Miliband do to be next PM , Labour most seats. Labour minority government, UKIP over 3.5 seats and his stand out, nailed on 9-5 that Miliband would be the Labour leader in January 2016. I’m not knocking Engel, his pieces were as thoughtful as anything I read and he was in good company as none of the other 10 betting firm pundits got anywhere near the result. On Monday Engel wrote a convincing argument against a late Tory surge. I remember in 1992 my father ‘s face beaming that on the day before the election the market was moving upwards and him predicting a Conservative majority. I monitored the FTSE on Wednesday. It did go up initially and then fell: the markets got it wrong too.

I will not attempt a sophisticated analysis but I do not believe the pollsters were wildly inaccurate. Voters at the very last did not fancy the SNP tail wagging the Westminster dog, the uncertainty of a minority government, the inevitable tax funding of hard left policies of Miliband and the simple mantra of “don’t go back, we have a balanced plan” won for the Tories in the crucial moment in the voting booth.

I did drop a final predictor to my mates of a  Tories win at 300 + seats and curse myself  offer not lumping on the lay of the year, 1-14,on a hung parliament that means  if you laid £100 your exposure is £14 and your profit £100.

Election 2015 did give a night and day we never forget. I took time out with the Missus from 11-00 to 2 for shopping. When I went on the BBC website, 3 party leaders had resigned in an hour. What price on 331 seats and three resignations? 1000-1?

 

About John Pargiter

John Pargiter’s biggest claim to fame is his first-ever work experience job, as ‘legs’ (or runner) for Henry Longhurst. For many years he worked in insurance at Lloyds. After retiring he has returned to his favourite sport of golf and is a keen recreational sailor and grandparent. More Posts

1 Comment on Election betting meltdown

  1. brilliant post I’m a big footy nerd from Hamburg

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