Interesting times
Over the last couple of years the world has endured an extraordinary succession of geo-political and national developments (one hesitates to say ‘crises’).
Hold the phone a second.
I was conscious just now that when I began typing the above sentence that ‘succession’ might not be the correct word to use anyway because it tends to imply that some of these developments have since ‘gone away’ and been replaced when of course they haven’t. Some of them had stayed and their ramifications multiplied.
What I meant to begin by saying was that – frankly – when you look back over even just 2016 some of the most creative writers or soothsayers who have ever drawn breath would have been hard-pressed to come up with what actually occurred. Which makes anyone trying to peer into 2017’s future naturally a tad nervous, especially on this day when in fourteen hours or so Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United Stated of America.
In the last two or three weeks I’ve been keeping my ‘posting’ powder dry largely because I’ve been attempting some thinking (now there’s a statement that will make some Rust readers scoff or choke over their cornflakes!).
Here are a couple of bones to chew upon:
PRESIDENT TRUMP
I’m stating the obvious here, for all the fundamental ties of the English language and the ‘Special Relationship’, when I say that – in general terms – we Brits tend towards a fairly straightforward (and facile) view of the people of the United States.
This holds that they are divided into the Democrats, who broadly hold to the same benign views of democracy, civil liberties, fairness etc. as we do – and the Republicans.
The latter, a surprisingly large bunch of stetson-wearing, gun-toting, racist, redneck, educationally-sub-normal right-wing loonies, believe the Earth (which God built in seven days including all the dinosaurs etc.) is not only flat but immune to climate change. Consequently, of course, (overall) the Republicans represent a real and present danger to the future of the human race.
In this respect they would be an eternal source of condescending satire and amusement … were it not for the potential nightmare scenario in which, one day – hopefully a long way off – Major T.J. ‘King’ Kong and the rest of the cast of Dr Strangelove might just, via a set of bizarre circumstances, get elected into the White House.
Which Donald Trump just has been.
Now I don’t actually know – anymore than the Pope does – whether the American lunatics have taken over the asylum. Or whether President Trump will immediately begin upon a (voluntary or involuntary) intense transformation and education and thereby within eighteen months or so emerge as a 21st Century version of old fuddy-duddy President Reagan and then serve a second term from 2021 after winning a second (this time landslide) Election.
I suppose the smart money will be placed upon the square marked “It won’t be quite as bad, but then again not half as good, as anyone is currently thinking”, but from where I’m sitting right now, however it turns out, I think the ride might be somewhat bumpy.
Half the issue is the fact that – at least on the campaign trail and via his use of social media etc. – President Trump has already by degrees so lowered all expectations of what his time in office might be like that, whatever happens, it might not turn out half as bad as the more depressed of us might fear.
After all, when time and again one thought his behaviour and instinctive reactions to events just couldn’t get any worse he has confounded by descending to a whole new level of ridiculousness.
MRS MAY AND BREXIT
Which brings me to the UK’s voyage towards Brexit. Mrs May’s two speeches this week have been relatively successful and well-received in the media and given immediate focus to the issues surrounding the triggering of Article 50.
On the domestic front she had temporarily drawn the Leave and Remain wings of the Tory Party together but, as important, neutralised the main thrust of the Parliamentary opposition (“You haven’t got a clue what your opening negotiating position is going to be!”) which had been building understandable momentum for several months.
If you think about it, it’s now quite difficult for Her Majesty’s Opposition to switch elegantly from the assertive “You haven’t got a clue – you must tell us your plans!” to “Oh …. Well, now you have told us your plans … er … we’re not sure, but we think we don’t quite agree 100% with some of them” and sound convincing.
What remains my major gripe is the stance of the ‘Bremoaning Establishment’.
They began by thinking that, if they could just explain how brilliant the EU was for the UK’s interests generally (and demonstrate what a catastrophe leaving would be), the public would be sensible – because ‘it was all so obvious’ – and vote to ‘stay’ when it came to the country holding an EU Referendum.
That was their original and biggest mistake.
But now the Referendum decision is in and the UK is quitting the EU, we’re being subjected to constant delaying tactics, roadblocks being placed in the way, technical legal issues being contested in the courts, doom-mongering predictions about how life will be once we’re out etc.
All this can be summarised as “You idiots! You made the wrong decision! Well, we’re sorry but we’ve now – for the good of the nation and our grandchildren – got to do everything we can to stop the UK leaving. Never mind the Referendum result, we’ve either got to re-run it [and get a different – i.e. the right – result] or else make leaving so difficult that in the end everyone, by now getting terminally bored, eventually agrees not to leave”.
I’d just simply refer the Bremoaning Establishment back to the original problem:
If, as you guys are now saying, it was all so difficult – to the point of being effectively impossible – to disentangle ourselves from the tentacles of the EU bureaucracy and its non-elected central political politburo, then why on Earth did you ever allow the UK public the opportunity to vote on whether or not it wanted to come out of the EU?
Surely that’s the very first lesson that any non-elected executive learns?
The trouble with any democracy – even one you only pay lip service to – is that if you ask it a question you might not get the answer you seek. And when that happens you’ve got a hell of a problem. Either you have to insult your people by declaring their decision void and/or sending them back to try and try again, i.e. until they come back with the ‘right’ decision … or, alternatively, you have to come clean, admit that you don’t actually believe in the principle of ‘one man, one vote’ democracy, totally ignore them and just get on with running the country (or continent) as you always intended anyway.
The sad fact is that – at the end of the day- I find the second of those two alternatives more honest.
