That crystal ball thing
It’s now only four days and counting down until rugby union’s 2016/2017 Aviva Premiership season begins and so those of us who are occasionally moved to comment or report upon it have begun sharpening our pencils and making our preparatory notes.
Although rugby is still basking in the warm glow of the generally-favourable reaction to the first outing of Rugby Sevens at the Rio Olympics, it has a raft of difficult issues piling up in its in-box at the moment. Player welfare in all its manifestations is probably the trickiest of the lot – the recent introduction of new, stringent, on-field protocols has done no more than ‘buy a little time’ on the subject of concussion which is one that will never go away – and arguably the conflict between the ever-growing demands of clubs, owners and administrators for more matches (hopefully thereby generating greater revenues) and the widely-acknowledged problem of player burnout and the ever-decreasing ‘recovery periods’ available for those involved at both club and international level (they’re practically playing a 12-month season) are unsurmountable.
Two other major issues are the prospect of the introduction of a global season across both Hemispheres (which concept has about as many detractors as supporters) and the recent intransigence of New Zealand which is currently threatening – after the current arrangements expire in about two years’ time – to declare UDI and arrange its own matches in isolation to everyone else.
The thinking of the Kiwis is understandable. The All Black brand is the biggest in either code of rugby and sells out stadiums around the world. However, recently they’ve taken to flexing their commercial muscles – demanding firstly a 50:50 share of revenue from matches they play, where formerly the host nation always took the biggest proportion, and now routinely going on to make more demands about who they’ll play and when.
The downside of their position is of course that – financially – New Zealand is in a weak position. The last time (2011) the Rugby World Cup was held in New Zealand the governing Word Rugby organisation took a mega-hit on the revenues it might have received if it had awarded the tournament elsewhere to any one of a number of ‘bigger’ markets.
The fact is that the number of rugby fans and size of potential commercial opportunities is infinitely greater in the Northern Hemisphere than it is in its Southern counterpart.
I’m a huge fan of New Zealand and all things related to it. I’ve never been there but those I know who have testify long and hard about its natural beauty.
The All Blacks, of course, almost define what the nation is about because – whereas other sports, not least soccer, can properly claim to be of bigger global popularity – there is no far-flung part of the Earth where rugby is played that does not acknowledge the specialness of the men in black.
There’s also much else to admire about the Kiwi people. Compared to their Aussie equivalents they are naturally quieter, more humble and easy-going. Their population barely exceeds four million but – because their racial mix and degree of integration is remarkable and the vast bulk of them are outdoor, active, types – if you ever come across an international sporting event or tournament, either with or without a ball, and spot the men (or women) clothed in black and wearing the silver fern, you can invariably bet your house that they’re going to be tough competitors, natural team players and significantly difficult to beat.
What’s not to like about all that?
Well – and it stems from the rugby but is inherent in everything that New Zealanders do and say. They’re so good at the game that over time the nation has gained a natural superiority complex that, for all their admitted general humility, rarely fails to seep out whenever they’re discussing rugby matters.
Don’t get me wrong. Whether you listen to a Kiwi in the street or a grizzled legendary All Black, they never take their success for granted. They so rarely lose that, when they do they really take it personally. A retired 50-cap All Black who in his time lost perhaps just two or three games in his national colours will always talk more about those defeats than any win.
But you know that they’re expecting to win every game. Never is this arrogance more apparent than when Sky Sports in the UK is broadcasting a New Zealand match from anywhere in the world and simultaneously taking a sound feed from a New Zealand commentating team.
There’s not the slightest attempt at ‘balance’ or impartiality. The commentator and any pundit with him provide (what to UK ears is) a totally one-sided viewpoint. It is as if the other team on the pitch is either not there, or is just the equivalent of rather sophisticated robotic tackle bags. All the onlooker receives is a constant stream of description and analysis of what the All Black team is doing, even if that is simply taking endless pressure whilst defending on its own try-line. The assumption is always that, even when on the back foot, an eventual victory by a landslide margin is inevitable.
And yet, the funny thing is, upon those very rare occasions that an All Black team loses, they are invariably gracious to their opponents in their reactions and content to admit they were second best on the day.
And so to my preview of the forthcoming Aviva Premiership season which I sadly suspect is going to be all very predictable.
Saracens are strong favourites to repeat last year’s Double success (Premiership title and European Champions Cup). The other Top Four finishers are likely to come from Leicester Tigers, Exeter Chiefs, Wasps and Bath. The remainder of the teams are making up the numbers and it will be a big surprise if relegation occurs to anyone outside Newcastle Falcons, Bristol and Worcester Warriors.
It’s going the way of soccer’s Premier League. The big and powerful are getting bigger and more powerful. The weak will end up going to the wall. And all the while general player burn-out will be getting worse and worse.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
