The French Presidential election

It looks very likely that the two front runners Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will emerge as victors in the first round on April 23rd. In the polls Macron is one point ahead of Le Pen but has a considerable lead in the final round of a two way shoot out in May.

Macron has arrived by default as the other candidate looked like Francois Fillon. A politician might be able to get away with doing little or nothing for a high salary but not his wife. The hopes of Fillon resurrecting his campaign were based on being the only viable winner against Le Pen but as his campaign falters, Macron’s gathers momentum.

Most French Presidents in the last 20 years promise to do something about a regime of self interest that over-regulates France but in reality cannot or will not. A common route to Presidency or high office is by becoming mayor in a major city. You dish out contracts, normally in construction, to build your electoral campaigning war chest. You can scarcely pass legislation unattractive to those that got you or keep you in office. On the other side there are crippling labour taxes that can reach 50% and an employment tribunal “the Prudhomme” that favours the worker and punishes the employer particularly those in small business.

France stumbles on with its reputation for chicness and glamour. The Riviera memorably described by Somerset Maugham will always be a “sunny place for shady people’. You can see why the artists that Alice admires- Derain, Dufy, Bonnard, Picasso, Mira, Chagall – lived here for its light, colour and beauty and old and new wealth buys up the villas in Cap Ferrat. The Medecin family, father and son ruled over Nice for 75% of the last century and the city still is a fiefdom of right wingers who gather at the back of Le Safari restaurant. Its Jewish population survived the German invasion of 1943 having felt safe when Mussolini occupied. It’s a country not unlike Italy where the institutions like the catholic church, family and small business provide a security that successive administrations cannot. The country has been hit hard by the Bataclan and July 14th atrocities in Paris and here and the biggest division in the televised debate with all the contenders was between Le Pen and Macron over the burkini, the one piece swimsuit Muslim women favour. The French electorate accept graft, promiscuity and inaction with a cynical resignation. Le Pen would shake things up but most cannot stomach her views or alignment with Putin. So it will be Macron. Plus ca change etc…..