Upon the eve of battle
Last night a member of the RFU Council asked my opinion upon the outcome of this afternoon’s rugby union international between England and the All Blacks – [there, I’ve always wanted to write that opening line (or at least something very like it) and for the first time in my life can genuinely now do so] …
Christopher Kelly, the RFU President, made the point in his address that, given that even today it has a population of only 4.5 million, proportionately New Zealand’s losses in WW1 were far greater than England’s.
It’s odd how human beings – both rugby fans and journalists – can swing all over the place in their attitudes and opinions from one month, or indeed match, to the next.
From the beginning of the UK rugby season, after the annus horribilis of 2017/2018, the speculative mood in England as the autumn international period approaches has been one of foreboding.
Added to that England’s retirements and injury woes – at the last count at least fifteen potential England first team squad members unavailable for selection this month – which have left Jones picking his squads from a ‘make do and mend’ assortment of callow youths and second (or third) team contenders, together with some Lions/England tourists who have been allegedly below top form simply due to exhaustion, and the groundwork had been long prepared for a set of indifferent (or worse) results in these four autumn Tests.
We have even had a wave of media discussion about how many wins will it take this month for Jones to retain his job, or indeed make any development progress in terms of Rugby World Cup selection and preparation.
In this respect Jones hasn’t helped his cause by arguably ‘getting his excuses in early’ in publicly stating that for him the results will matter less than England’s performances.
In short, England’s expectation had been systematically dampening down all season so far.
Then we had last Saturday’s unexpected 12-11 victory over South Africa.
The naysayers would have been slightly wrong-footed, the fans delighted not least because it was an old-fashioned, traditional, blood and guts, full-on Test match in which England came out on top.
The entail-examiners have pointed to how poorly England played in the first stanza whilst South Africa dominated territory and possession to an extent which – had it been a world title boxing bout – the referee might have begun hovering anxiously at the exchanges on the ropes in case he ought to intervene in order to save the home team from taking excessive and unnecessary punishment.
Others, perhaps with the benefit of hindsight given what later unfolded, have been pronouncing (as if they had known this might happen all along) that it was actually the Springboks who revealed their own cavernous weaknesses or ‘work-ons’ in that first half.
To put no finer point upon it, on four or five occasions they swept all before then in endless waves of attack going closer and closer to the England line, only to falter, ‘snatch’ at the chances, or commit successive unforced technical or other errors that caused them to draw blanks. Arguably, (disregarding penalties) their single well-worked try was a pitiful return from a 70-plus% possession and territory advantage stat.
And so over the past six days – inevitably – attention has turned to what will be, historically and in terms of world ranking bragging rights, undoubtedly the biggest Test of the series.
England haven’t met New Zealand in four years. There’s no getting round the fact that playing the Kiwis is the biggest challenge that any international team can face and that it is one that, if you don’t guard and prepare yourself for it, can ‘get inside your head’.
Yesterday there was a swathe of media pieces urging England – if not actually to disrespect the All Blacks and the ritual of the haka – then at least do something to confront this ‘silly and unnecessary pantomime of over-the-top bravado’ in an attempt to gain some sort of mental advantage/parity.
I don’t buy any of that. I love watching the haka, which is a central manifestation of New Zealand culture. From all I have picked up from meeting Kiwis and otherwise learning about what makes them tick, there is a genuine complete lack of racism – in fact quite the opposite – within their mix of European descent, Maoris and Pacific Islanders.
Plus they are instinctively humble and devoid of arrogance – and in saying that I’d distinguish here between what I’d call here an unwarranted gloating arrogance and the collective expectation among both New Zealand players and supporters that every time they run out onto a rugby pitch they will prevail.
I have never visited New Zealand myself, but everyone I’ve met who has done so testifies that, unless you’ve experienced it for yourself by going there, you can have no real appreciation of the degree to which rugby dominates the Kiwi mindset.
All of the above is a long way around to me stating that I shall make no prediction about the outcome of this afternoon’s Test match.
The betting fraternity will have it that the All Blacks are favourites and the probability is that they will win. However, you never know. Whenever two sporting teams meet, one of them has to – well, unless there’s a draw, of course! That fact gives England a chance. And they are the home team, after all.
The Twickenham crowd came truly alive towards the end of last Saturday’s clash against South Africa. They’ll be fired up in advance of kick-off this afternoon.
My money is going upon the safest bets of all, relating to the post-match losing captain’s interviews.
If the All Blacks win, the England skipper’s comments will concentrate almost exclusively upon perceived positives in England’s performance and looking to improve in the future.
If England win, the Kiwi skipper will first pay generous tribute to the England team for their victory and commend the England fans. The gist of his assessment of his own team’s effort will be “Fair dos – we were outplayed on the day”.
