Well, someone’s going one-down on Saturday
These are heady days for Northern Hemisphere rugby in terms of how we’re getting on as regards our annual summer tours to the bottom end of the globe.
It’s all down to the results, of course, perhaps with a bit of adrenalin-pumped anticipation thrown in to the effect that – even if we’re not actually winning – there remains a chance (however slim) that we might just do so next week when the ‘Big One’ comes along.
Gone are the dark days of February thru to late May, when every hack and pundit plying his or her trade in the British and Irish Lions home countries – plus every coach, ex-player, every Rugby Player Association rep and indeed most of us interested in watching rugby at home or in person – was ranting about the incompetence of the well-meaning-but-out-of-their-depth sporting administrators involved (whomever they were) in accepting such a suicidal and inadequate tour schedule in New Zealand … thereby not only ensuring a disaster before the Lions had even congregated at Heathrow Airport but also (in doing so) consigning the historic and glorious Lions brand to future oblivion.
I’m not even going into the serious concerns that were raised about player welfare and the physical effects upon the Lions players, most of them who had just finished yet another relentlessly draining season of between 30 and 45 matches (if you count pre-season friendlies and all the internationals and cup competitions etc. that some of the elite club players will have been involved in) and yet, barely without a break, were then going to be setting off Down Under and beyond to take on the Big Beasts of the Southern Hemisphere who, in contrast, would only just be reaching the ‘meat and potatoes’ section of their winter seasons.
And yet. And yet, of course …
Firstly, no apology from me for opening by mentioning Gregor Townsend’s Scotland’s splendid against-the-odds 24-19 victory over Australia in Sydney on 17th June.
I do so not because of any plea or order from my husband, who has been in a haze of hoarse misty-eyed semi-inebriation almost ever since, but because under coaches Vern Cotter and now Townsend the Scots have been gradually climbing out of their rather-worrying half-decade and more of seemingly terminal decline and somehow fighting their way back to their traditional place at the top table.
They’re not there yet – nor possess any guarantee they will stay – but the buds of rude health are in evidence and good luck to them.
Based partly upon the above-mentioned pre-Tour doom-saying and partly upon my own gut feeling, I was fully primed for two months of TV-watching nightmares and yet (because it was the Lions) also strangely looking forward to it, as one must do.
Having watched every game so far ‘live’ – and I’m not going to over-analyse the entrails because on the Rust we try not to duplicate what the Fleet Street specialist scribes do for a living – I have become hearteningly but possibly irrationally upbeat about the Lions’ prospects for the first Test at Eden Park in Auckland on Saturday (24th June).
I put it no higher than this.
After all the issues of beyond-season playing, jet-lag, the 24/7 unimaginable pressures of being an elite player on tour in New Zealand and the ins and outs of the difficult games that have flown by so thick and fast, there seems to be a kernel of possibility emerging.
It is a truism to say that ‘going on tour’ together creates a strong bond of comradeship within any group of players but over the past twenty days or so the evidence of this happening amongst the Lions has been growing.
If you think about it, even taking a squad of players picked from four different amateur rugby clubs on a ‘pub crawl with occasional run-outs on a pitch’ tour of the West Country is bound to create a degree of playing-cohesion before it’s time to go home.
There have been distinct signs of this occurring within the Lions touring party. During the first twenty days – when Gatland was still trying to give every player a go and presumably everyone’s national pride/xenophobia remained a subconscious issue – it always seemed as if the results might go either way.
But during the most recent Highlanders-Maori-Chiefs sequence of games the Lions have developed a way of imposing themselves upon the opposition, particularly up front. As a result the various elite exponents of the ‘Harlem Globetrotter’ style of play beloved in the Southern Hemisphere have had their game-plans systematically throttled out of them.
Nevertheless, my prediction for the first Test remains a Lions loss by 10 points.
That said, a victory in either or both the second and third Tests is not quite out of the question.
For:
Forget all the arguments over who wasn’t picked for the Lions and who was – they’re the best players in the Home Nations who have now gelled into a team (and there’s not that big a gap between the set-piece abilities of the players of both Hemispheres).
The Kiwis are not used to oppositions who don’t play the same way as them. The Lions defensive system is strong. In recent games some of the flair individuals have begun playing with confidence. If the play-makers can impose themselves and get the team playing in the areas of the pitch they should ideally be playing in, who knows what might happen?
Against:
Nobody should ever under-estimate the intensities involved of playing rugby in New Zealand. The All Blacks are very big, very physical and very strong and in particular all comfortable with the ball, regardless of their position in the team. They are also born with an inherent belief that they are the world’s best and that they will always somehow find a way to win before the final whistle. They’re ruthless at exploiting weaknesses. And then ruthless about winning at all costs.
During the tour so far the Lions have routinely failed to convert but a fraction of the try-scoring opportunities they’ve created – this is their biggest single problem.
To be fair to the Kiwis, for all their underlying and understated arrogance, ironically the one way you can earn their undying respect is by standing up to them and/or, dare I say it, even running them close or beating them.
Postscript:
Finally today, a word from me about England’s tour to Argentina and two-Test victories out there.
Three years ago – during the Stuart Lancaster regime – the idea that England might ever go to the Southern Hemisphere and win a Test series was laughable. The mere fact that (with Eddie Jones in charge) it now seems an almost natural foregone conclusion speaks volumes.
Especially when – through the Lions tours, other commitments and injuries etc. – he not only had 30 players unavailable to go to Argentina, but then on top decided not to pick ‘the next in line’ and instead take ten uncapped players with him, some of them teenagers and some of them not even first choices for their clubs … and still won both Tests.
What’s more – from a punters’ point of view – as rugby matches both Tests were amazingly open, hard-fought, end to end, toe-to-toe battles. A lasting credit to both teams, in other words.
What’s not to like about that? Roll on the 2019 Rugby World Cup, I say!
